Challenging the “Do the Opposite” WR-WR Draft Strategy in Fantasy Football

For the past 5 years at least I have read in many Fantasy Football publications the “Do the opposite” strategy of drafting two WR in the first and second round. Writers have gone on about how the old idea of RB RB was closed minded. Let me first say that the remainder of the post is predicated on the standard scoring system of fantasy football. Not the bastardized version of scoring that awards points for each reception. Taking on that issue will require a blog post all its own. So what of the do the opposite strategy?

The 1st and 2nd round is where you have to land the big scorers of your team. Sure you can pull a lucky one in the 3rd or 4th but rarely and even more rare does a top 10 overall producer come out of anything after the 4th. There is the occasional outlier ie Matt Schaub this year though QBs have an easier time racking up points. The point is in the first two rounds you need your players that separate you from the other teams. You need the guys who out score the average player at that position by the biggest possible margin. Take the top running back this year Chis Johnson’s weekly average of 21 vs the weekly average of the 10th best running back Deangelo Williams 13 points that is 8 points a week of separation. Now lets do the same for WR DeSean Jackson with a weekly average of 14 vs the 10th best Reggie Wayne 11. That gives you 3 points of separation.The difference of having Chris Johnson and Reggie Wayne vs DeSean Jackson and DeAngelo Williams is 5 extra points a week. A big difference. The other issue this reveals is that DeSean Jackson was not taken in the 1st or 2nd round yet Chris Johnson was only available in the 1st or very early second. RBs are easier to predict who will be the top scores where as WR are harder to pin down and more come from outside of the top 3 rounds the then top scoring RBs. Potentially 5 of the top 10 WR this year did not get drafted in the 1st 3 rounds. DeSean Jackson, Miles Austin, Wes Welker, Brandon Marshall and number #11 overall Sidney Rice all could have been got after the 3rd round.

As for the RBs 3 of the top 10 were available after the 3 round Ray Rice, Thomas Jones and Jamaal Charles and 6 of the top 10 would have been taken in the first round. dafabet

That is what you get with the top tier running backs- more predictable top tier performers.

Most of the time people employ the WR/WR strategy is if they are on the tail end of the 1st round. Leaving them with no running backs coming into their next round of picks at the end of the 3rd and start of the 4th round. I encourage you to pull out your draft board from this fall and take a look at the RBs that went in the 3rd and 4th round. Do you think you would have spiked the Thomas Jones or maybe you just know you would have been the guy to time Ray Rice just right. I think in the later rounds even the best fantasy minds are throwing darts, where as the available WRs look decent, a much deeper pool remaining.

Also very few WR historically have had tremendous scoring upside, the Randy Moss and Jerry Rices are few and far between where as the RBs typically have 2 or 3 scoring beasts per year.

Finally, think back to last season again when you were scooping the waiver wire. There always seems to be WRs
that are impact players that get added ie. Steve Smith (NY), Percy Harvin, Simms Walker etc.. and relatively few RBs though I will admit there did seem to be a few more then usual this year (I am looking at you Cedric Benson and Ricky Williams).

 

 

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